...will he ever win?

Tech: Douglas Crockford: Quarterly Royalty Statement

Thu, 31 Dec 2009 16:44:48 +0000

Format	Net Units	Net Sales	Royalty %	Net Royalty
--------	--------	--------	--------	--------
Book	4,019	53,009.79	10.000	5,300.98
License	2	89.41	10.000	8.94
On-Line Access	3	3,573.06	10.000	357.31
PDF	104	1,899.17	10.000	188.92
*Reserve Withheld				-1,060.20
	--------	--------		--------
Net	4,128	58,561.43		4,795.95

Tech: Douglas Crockford: Bertrand

Tue, 29 Dec 2009 18:34:01 +0000

Constraints are an interesting way to write programs. In a constraint system, instead of listing a jumble of instructions, you declare a set of relationships which when solved yields an answer. Amazing things have been done with constraint systems, including Ivan Sutherland's groundbreaking Sketchpad (1963), but they haven't received enough attention from the mainstream.

In 1988, Wm Leler published the brilliant Constraint Programming Languages: Their Specification and Generation, which describes Bertrand, a system for describing and realizing constraint languages. Bertrand uses Augmented Term Rewriting to build languages and to normalize and simplify a system of constraints. Leler has made the Bertrand codebase available at http://groups.google.com/group/bertrand-constraint.

Constraints can solve a large class of problems, including graphical layout. Design rules can be expressed as formulas which can yield a pleasing page layout that fits the constraints of a display device. I am optimistic that constraint systems can be used to repair or replace CSS.

Tech: Gizmag: Pentax Optio P70 compact – 12 MPX plus 720p video

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 03:47:50 +0000

January 6, 2009 Digital still image and video continue to converge with Pentax announcing the US$200 Optio P70 at CES. The ultra-slim P70 takes 12 megapixel still images and 720p video, sadly at just 15 FPS, but it’s a start. There’s a 4X optical zoom (equivalent to 27.5mm-110mm), a 2.7 inch high-resolution, wide-angle view LCD panel, and new Pixel Track Shake Reduction technology to assure sharp images with low noise even in poor lighting. ..

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Main: Clickolinko!: http://docs.amazonwebservices.com/AmazonS3/latest/index.html?RequesterPaysBuckets.html

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 03:47:18 +0000

mad

Main: Clickolinko!: http://docs.amazonwebservices.com/AmazonDevPay/latest/DevPayDeveloperGuide/index.html?S3RequesterPays.html

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 03:47:18 +0000

blargh

Main: Clickolinko!: http://debgem.phusion.nl/

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 03:47:18 +0000

!!!!!!!!!!

Tech: Hack a Day: tircd

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 03:43:58 +0000

tircd is an ircd proxy for talking to the Twitter API. It should work with any standard IRC client. After running the Perl script, you authenticate to the IRC server using your Twitter username as your /nick. Join the room #twitter and the /topic will be set to your last update. Any message you type will update Twitter and the room’s topic. All of the people you are following show up in the room as users and post messages as they tweet. If you private message one of them, it will become a direct message on Twitter. Other commands work too: /whois to get a person’s bio, /invite to start following, and /kick to unfollow. The project is brand new and will be added new features in the future like Search API support. Follow @tircd for updates.

Tech: Gizmag: Fuji’s new eco-friendly, long-lasting, guilt-free EnviroMAX batteries

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 03:34:02 +0000

Despite promises of portable alternative power sources, batteries still rule the roost and apart from being a costly form of energy, we all know that we’re contributing a little bit more to the planet’s indigestible waste with each one we purchase – until now! Fuji is announcing a new line of eco-friendly, high performance consumer batteries at CES. EnviroMAX batteries do not contain cadmium or mercury or any ingredients harmful to the environment, are packaged with recycled paper and fully recyclable PET plastic and can be disposed of through normal waste systems or in landfills as they degrade. Fuji is claiming equal or better performance/longevity to the major equivalent brands, and an affordable price. They’re due in stores in April. Stay tuned for more info when we get our hands on a set...

Tags: Batteries, Eco-friendly, Enviromax, Fuji

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Tech: Ars Technica: $1.5 billion Microsoft Vista-Capable booty hardly ill-gotten

jhruska@arstechnica.com (Joel Hruska) — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 03:30:00 +0000

New information from an economist's deposition suggests that Microsoft made around $1.5 billion from the Vista Capable program, but shoving that number around without some perspective as a garnish changes the entire situation.

Main: Clickolinko!: http://kalleboo.mirror.waffleimages.com/files/3a/3a829d4e251111ff6b9484d83936b3747129dd11.jpg

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 03:17:34 +0000

res0

Comics: PvP: Ding! Call for your WoW stories

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 03:02:33 +0000

In the new year, I’ve decided to take back over all the creative regins on my comic strip “Ding!”. Once again, I’ll be writing and drawing the strip. But that’s not all that’s changing.

World of Warcraft isn’t just a game. It’s a community of shared experiences and I thought it would be awesome if “Ding!” reflected that, while at the same time giving some WoW fans a chance to see some of their exploits immortalized in a webcomic.

Following the brilliant format of my buddy Brad Guigar’s Phables, I’m changing up “Ding!.” No longer will the strip follow the exploits of Kissybear and the Panda Attack guild. Instead Ding! will tell YOUR stories about you and your local band of heroes.

If you have a great WoW story that you would like to share with the Ding! audience, just email me your story in your own words. Be sure to include your character name, and server so I can give you credit (if you don’t want people to know that information, a fictional name can be made up for you). Don’t be shy about including a screenshot of your toon so I know how you’re dressing these days (and I can recreate all your leet gear in cartoon form).

If your story is picked and turned into a Ding! comic, you’ll receive an 11×17 print of the strip, so be sure to include a contact email address with your submission.

Send me your hilarious or awesome WoW story today! I’d love to turn it into a comic strip.

Ding strips will return next Wednesday on a once-a-week schedule.

Politics: Crooks and Liars: Aid Agencies Say Gaza Needs Food, Medicine and Body Bags

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 03:00:28 +0000

Mads Gilbert, a Norwegian doctor in Gaza, tells Sky News that the number of civilians injured and killed in Gaza proves that Israel is deliberately attacking the population. The people of Gaza continue to be caught in the middle of the power play between Israel and Hamas: JERUSALEM, Jan 5 (Reuters) - People in Gaza were in dire need of food and medical supplies, aid agencies said on Monday, but Israel's ground assault and air raids were hampering relief efforts. Freezing cold is compounding the misery of children caught in the conflict. And body bags for victims are in short supply. "The situation in Gaza since the Israel Defense Forces launched their ground offensive on Saturday night has become both chaotic and extremely dangerous," the International Committee of the Red Cross said in a situation report. Air raids had damaged hospitals, water supply systems, government buildings and mosques but it was difficult for ICRC staff to move around to assist, it said. About 530 Palestinians have been killed, at least a quarter of them civilians, since Israel launched its offensive on Dec. 27 to curtail Hamas rocket attacks from Gaza. Ground troops invaded the enclave, home to 1.5 million Palestinians, on Saturday night after a week of bombardments from the air and from naval vessels. Hospitals were inundated with Palestinian wounded, the ICRC said. Fresh supplies were urgently needed, including painkillers and anaesthetics but also body bags and sheets to wrap corpses.

Politics: Sadly, No!: Shorter Michael Ledeen

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 02:51:36 +0000

Above: “[O]ne of our foremost observers of Iran” - J. Buttmissile, Esq. Right.

“Is Iran in Trouble?”

Never mind that for years I’ve asserted that Iran is a greater menace than Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union, and the legions of Mordor combined; now I’m telling you that it’s a paper tiger! What better time, then, to launch an invasion of Syria and Persia than right now?

‘Shorter’ concept created by Daniel Davies and perfected by Elton Beard. We are aware of all Internet traditions.™

Main: Clickolinko!: http://zaitcev.livejournal.com/181129.html

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 02:46:32 +0000

come on, mingo and tglx pull that shit all the time

Tech: Gizmag: The Magpul FMG9 Netbook-sized Folding Machine Gun

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 02:41:32 +0000

You can’t always judge a book by its cover and the Netbook-sized Magpul FMG9 is about as deceptive as they come. It looks like an industrial torch or a portable radio, and will fit in a girl’s handbag or the back pocket of a pair of jeans. One click later, the spring-assisted deployment mechanism snaps and you have a sub machine gun ready to fire. The innocuous FMG acronym stands for Folding Machine Gun and its small size and lightweight polymer casing belie its firepower - folded it holds 31 9x19 mm NATO rounds in a Glock magazine and although the prototype was only semi-automatic, a fully automatic version will almost certainly be available if production goes ahead. What’s the bet Q hands one of these to 007 in the next movie?..

Tags: FMG9, Glock, Magpul, Military, Netbook, Netbook-sized, Prototype, Weapon

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Comics: PvP: Webcomics Weekly #51 - Resolutions

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 02:40:20 +0000

It’s a new year! Dave, Brad, Kris and Scott discuss their resolutions from 2008, if they accomplished what they set out for the year and look forward into 2009.

Direct Download
Subscribe via RSS

Tech: Ars Technica: What piracy? Movie biz sees record box office in 2009

david@arstechnica.com (David Chartier) — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 02:25:00 +0000

Domestic film box offices broke multiple records this year, grossing an estimated $9.78 billion. Thanks to both major and not-so-major releases this year, films from studios like Warner Bros, Paramount, and Sony all contributed to the highest-grossing year in film history.

Tech: Ars Technica: What piracy? Movie biz sees record box office in 2008

david@arstechnica.com (David Chartier) — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 02:25:00 +0000

Politics: Sadly, No!: Would You Like Some Help Digging That Boomerang Out of Your Face?

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 02:21:51 +0000

Mark Steyn dutifully quotes Steve Forbes; both demand that the Obama Administration copy the Irish government’s corporate tax scheme which they allege is totally awesome. Or else:

The growing gap between US corporate rates and other developed nations is a massive disincentivization for real human beings to start and grow a business here. And for those already here it encourages the kind of short-term thinking that leads to Bailoutistan and American sclerosis.

ZOMG I should just pack up now and go to the land of my ancestors, a near-glibertarian paradise where sound non-government has enriched not only the citzenry but, as per the Laffer curve, the government as well! Oh yes where Guinness falls from the sky and Lucky Charms grow on trees…

Except for this. And this.

Ireland’s bubbleburst, from my equally-as-inexpert-as-Steyn’s opinion, will be worse than ours. It’s true their economy boomed, but only because of a sort of Cayman Islands effect by which so many wealthy jackasses moved money from lands of higher tax rates. Cumulative incidental investment from a mass of weasels shirking their responsibility did the trick, not ‘higher returns’ because of the alleged infallibility of the Laffer theory. Ireland was like the Delaware of the Western World: it only worked not because it was right or because its particular structure was better or even sound, but because it was such an outlier. (The Times piece implies the relationship between Ireland and America and the EU was symbiotic; I think the better word is parasitic.) In effect it cheated its neighbors; now it’s ended up cheating itself. It too will get drastically Keynesian as it surveys the rubble, and the wealthy criminal class will then move like locusts to some other country whose government it can bribe or co-opt, unless… everybody gets together and agrees not to tax the bastards at any rate less than a certain amount.

Bonus Freedom-loving Fun: Click through to read Forbes gush over Libya’s recently-stated desire to become the new Singapore. Glibertarians love Singapore, as it is exactly the kind of authoritarian state that develops from school-of-Miltie policies; like Pinochet’s Chile, you can be killed there for next to nothing — your civil liberties there are for shit. But you have a large degree of economic freedom and power of property, which is the only thing people like Forbes care about. (Steyn has actually come to care about freedom of speech since it allows him to indulge his habit of smearing Muslims, a touchy point up Canada way.)

Games: The Linux Game Tome: Platinum Arts Sandbox 2.3 (updated)

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 02:17:04 +0000

Easily create worlds, adventures and quests in game, even cooperatively!

More about Platinum Arts Sandbox

Games: IGN PC: Reloaded LAN Party Coming Up in Adelaide

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 02:07:00 +0000

Find out the details on this huge event.

Main: Brother Ted: Our bodies are oppositeland

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 02:06:26 +0000

So, I had so much very, very rich food last night, that I was exhausted. The more chemical energy in food, the more it makes you tired. Because our bodies are oppositeland.

Anyway, while I was tired, I thought of this trick: write down everything that comes to mind when you're exhausted, or depressed, or otherwise not at your best. Every subject matter that remains interesting at those times.

Then, when you're feeling better, go through that same list. Are those thoughts that are so native to you that you just fall into them easily? Do they represent you at your laziest? Or are they just very familiar and comforting to you?

Consider whether you want to keep those thoughts in your life.

But I haven't actually done this, because apparently that was one of those thoughts.

Main: Laughing Squid: Apple Introduces The MacBook Wheel, A Laptop Without a Keyboard

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 02:00:20 +0000

Apple has just announced the MacBook Wheel, an innovative new laptop with a touch-sensitive click wheel instead of a traditional keyboard. The 40GB model is only $9,960!

This is a blog post from Laughing Squid For more content like this, subscribe to the RSS feed, Twitter & FriendFeed.

Apple Introduces The MacBook Wheel, A Laptop Without a Keyboard

- PC World: Fastest Vista Laptop, An Apple MacBook Pro

- Apple Announces MacBook Air, The World’s Thinnest Notebook

- AirMail, A MacBook Air Sleeve in the Shape of a Manila Envelope

- MacBook Pro

- Laughing Squid Sponsors Leah Culver’s Laser Etched MacBook Pro

Politics: Crooks and Liars: Bill Richardson mumbles his way off the stage

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 02:00:03 +0000

Download | Play Download | Play It probably goes without saying that I avidly support appointing Latinos to key positions within the Obama administration, but I've always been hesitant about Bill Richardson. Not only is it well known behind the Democratic scenes that he has certain horndoggy vulnerabilities in his personal life, but he's always carried a certain air of corruptibility peculiar to Western politicians. I know that scent well and it always made me leery. So I can't say I'm sorry to see him bow out, because my gut instinct was that he spelled T-R-O-U-B-L-E for Democrats generally and the Obama Administration in particular. His press conference today did nothing to alter that impression, especially when he flatly refused to discuss the investigation into the influence-peddling matter and wouldn't even say whether or not he had lawyered up. It all smells very fishy to me. Note that Richardson wants us to think he had been perfectly forthcoming with the Obama transition team about the case. Turns out that's not true either. I'm just glad all this happened before confirmation hearings arrived.

Tech: bldgblog: BLDGBLOG @ Rice University

noreply@blogger.com (Geoff Manaugh) — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 01:34:00 +0000

I'm excited to announce that I'll be lecturing at the Rice University School of Architecture in Houston, Texas, in only two days' time, kicking off their Spring 2009 lecture series.

[Image: View larger].

I've clearly got some very large shoes to fill with this series, however, as I've been lined up with everyone from Beatriz Colomina and Cynthia Davidson to Reinhold Martin and Felicity D. Scott. Stan Allen, Juan Herreros, Richard Ingersoll, Pier Vittorio Aureli, Michael Weinstock, Peter Trummer – it looks like a fantastic series.
For my own part, I think I've got a great talk planned – called "Cities Gone Wild" – expanding from the lecture I gave back in November, sponsored by the Complex Terrain Laboratory, at University College, London.
This talk begins at 5pm on Wednesday, January 7; it's free and open to the public; and it will take place in Anderson Hall.
I don't know how many readers BLDGBLOG has in Houston – or, for that matter, at Rice – but I'd love to see some of you there. And please introduce yourselves, too, as I love meeting new people.
Also, at the end of my talk I hope to address the more general subject of blogging, if for no other reason than I can guarantee that there are students enrolled at Rice right now – and people living in Houston – who have something interesting to say and simply need a new platform from which to say it. I'd be happy to talk about establishing a blog and so on, as that's not a topic I've much addressed throughout all of these talks.
Finally, I'll be doing thesis reviews at the architecture department all day on Thursday and Friday, so if you happen to be enrolled in the courses I'll be visiting, then cool. I look forward to meeting you!
And come out to the talk – it should be fun.

Main: Clickolinko!: http://www.haskell.org/pipermail/cvs-ghc/2008-August/043999.html

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 01:31:52 +0000

hey, nobody told me the GHC peopel switched to git

Politics: EFF News: UMG v. Veoh: Another Victory for Web 2.0

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 01:29:46 +0000

Over the holidays, video hosting site Veoh won another victory under the DMCA safe harbors, this time against Universal Music Group (UMG). The ruling should put to rest the argument that transcoding and other activities necessary for making content accessible on the web are not covered by the DMCA's Section 512(c) safe harbor for storing material on behalf of users (i.e., hosting user-generated content). This is good news not just for Veoh, but also for YouTube and every other site that hosts material uploaded by users.

Like many other companies that host content on behalf of users, Veoh has been bedeviled by copyright lawsuits. The copyright owners make the same argument in each of these suits: the hosting service should be liable for every infringing bit uploaded by naughty users and responsible for the full cost of policing for infringement. Fortunately, Congress enacted the DMCA's safe harbor provisions back in 1998 to protect service providers from exactly these risks, offering immunity from copyright damages to those who implement a notice-and-takedown system. In August 2008, Veoh won a big victory against adult video purveyor Io Group, relying on these provisions.

Veoh's latest victory was against UMG, which sued Veoh because Veoh users allegedly uploaded UMG music videos without authorization. The issue before the court was whether the DMCA safe harbor for hosting only covers the actual act of storing bits on a server, or whether it also covers related activities, such as:

automatically transcoding video files uploaded by users into Flash format;
automatically creating copies of uploaded video files that are comprised of smaller “chunks” of the original file;
allowing users to access uploaded videos via streaming;
allowing users to access uploaded videos by downloading whole video files.

Relying on the statutory language, as well as the legislative history, the court concluded that all of these activities are covered by the DMCA Section 512(c) safe harbor. Lots of online service providers will greet this ruling with relief. If the court had accepted UMG's arguments, every web host would lose the safe harbor as soon as it made web pages available to the public. The ruling should also help YouTube in its ongoing battle with Viacom, which also turns on the continuing strength of the DMCA safe harbors.

But the Veoh ruling also points out a surprising irony: while YouTube and Viacom are fighting their interminable litigation trench war, many interesting DMCA legal questions are being resolved in smaller, faster-moving cases involving companies like Veoh. At this rate, the highly-anticipated Viacom v. YouTube lawsuit may end up a footnote in the legal fights that define the rules governing user-generated content.

Politics: EFF News: Al-Haramain Warrantless Spying Case Can Proceed

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 01:23:42 +0000

Today, Chief Judge Vaughn Walker of the United States District Court in San Francisco denied the government's third motion to dismiss the Al-Haramain v. Bush litigation. The ruling means that the case can proceed and the court also set up a process to allow the Al Haramain plaintiffs to prosecute the case while protecting classified information.

Al-Harmain Islamic Foundation, the Oregon chapter of an Islamic charity, sued the Bush Administration for the illegal surveillance of the organization and its attorneys as part of the NSA warrantless wiretapping program. The case was based on a secret document that was inadvertently disclosed by the government that, according to the plaintiffs, demonstrates that they were subjected to unlawful electronic surveillance outside the scope of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA).

In late 2007, the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that despite the disclosure, the "Sealed Document" itself was a state secret, but sent the case back to the District Court to determine whether the FISA law nonetheless allowed the case to go forward, under a doctrine called "preemption." Last summer, the Court had ruled that FISA does preempts the state secrets privilege, and gave Al-Haramain the right to amend its complaint to show that they were "aggrieved persons" within the meaning of FISA through evidence other than the Sealed Document. If they could do so, the case could proceed.

In today's ruling, the Court held that in their amended complaint the Al-Haramain plaintiffs had presented sufficient evidence that they were "aggrieved persons" and rejected the Government's claims to the contrary, saying: "Without a doubt, plaintiffs have alleged enough to plead 'aggrieved persons' status so as to proceed to the next step in proceedings . . ."

In order to allow litigation to proceed while keeping the secrets under wraps, the Court ordered the government to arrange security clearances for Al-Haramain's attorneys. The Court also ordered the government to allow Judge Walker to review the Sealed Document in his chambers by January 19th. Finally, the Court required the government to review the classified submissions in the case, and declassify as much as possible. The Court will schedule a hearing later this month to plan next steps.

Games: Curmudgeon Gamer: Analyzing the Downloadable Game Racket

noreply@blogger.com (jvm) — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 01:22:57 +0000

Ryan over at GamerBytes has a pretty awesome pair of articles on the top selling games on XBLA (here) and PSN (here).

I recommend them. Here's a quote I particularly liked:

From various sources we can see that despite some quality games coming out from smaller developers, like RooGoo and Shred Nebula, they're not selling. They can't get their name out there, and nobody is taking the time to give these games a go.
Go and have a look at the US PlayStation blog - they have done a fantastic job allowing smaller developers, like the people behind high Velocity Bowling, PAIN, SuperSonic Automatic Rocket Powered Battle Cars and NovaStrike to speak directly to the community and give them a chance to convince the people. Interviews with Major Nelson are nice, but that's not enough.

Of all the stuff Sony's screwed up in the past couple of years, the PS Blog is one of their triumphs. I don't read it a lot, but they do a decent job of keeping true exclusive announcements for themselves. That increases visibility and readership tremendously, I'd imagine.

Anyway, the articles are a decent read.

Disclosure: I have written pro bono for GamerBytes and the parent company (Think Services) also owns Gamasutra, for whom I write monthly.

Tech: Ars Technica: Norwegian podcast puts entire Beatles catalog online—legally

jtimmer@arstechnica.com (John Timmer) — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 01:16:00 +0000

This may be a case of unintended consequences. The NRK, Norway's national broadcasting service has scored permission from the country's music rights holders to release podcasts of any programs that it's done that are less than 70 percent music. A notable component of the NRK's collection is a series of broadcasts that includes the entire Beatles catalog.

Tech: Linux Weekly News: AMD Releases Open-Source R600/700 3D Code (Phoronix)

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 01:04:00 +0000

Phoronix has the details on AMD's release of 3D drivers for ATI R600 and R700 graphics processors. "Since earlier this year we have been waiting for AMD to release documentation and/or code on the ATI R600 series concerning 3D acceleration so that the open-source Linux drivers can begin to support the newer ATI graphics processors. It has taken longer than expected for AMD to complete and release this information, but it's now available. AMD has released the fundamental Linux code needed to begin fostering the development of an open-source R600 3D driver. Furthermore, this code also concerns the latest R700 series of graphics processors! The microcode for the newest GPUs has also been released."

Politics: Crooks and Liars: TODAY Show cancels Ann Coulter

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 01:00:27 +0000

And a new day is born.

Ann Coulter was scheduled to appear on the "Today" show Tuesday morning to promote her new book, "Guilty." But it's now been canceled, according to her website.

"I guess this ends the 'they just want to get ratings' argument about liberal media bias," Coulter wrote underneath.

As County Fair notes:

Coulter is still scheduled to appear on CBS' Early Show tomorrow, according to her web page. This follows the recent revelation that CBS considered including Coulter on the "independent" panel it created to investigate a 60 Minutes report on President Bush's National Guard record.

Matthews will still beg for her to come on Hardball I would imagine.

Politics: Open Left: Bowers Vs. 538 Vs. Pollster.com

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 00:56:34 +0000

Now that all of the counting is finally done for the 2008 elections, it is possible to compare how different election forecasters fared. The three I have long been most interested in comparing are:

My method, which takes the simple mean of all non-campaign funded, telephone polls that were conducted entirely within the final eight days of a campaign. My rationale for this method is described here: No Special Sauce Needed For Electoral Projections. This is an intentionally rudimentary "election forecasting for dummies" method that anyone can reproduce.
Pollster.com, which uses all polls ever conducted in a state, and creates a regression line based on those polls. This is the ultimate "don't cherry pick polls and don't argue with polls" method. It was developed by a professional pollster and a political scientist, and is explained here.
Fivethirtyeight.com, whose complicated methodology is essentially the opposite of Pollster.com's: adjust every poll based on demographics, previous house effects, and previous error rate.

How did these three distinct prediction methods fare against each other? Results in the extended entry.
To compare the three methodologies, I looked ay the 65 Presidential and Senatorial campaigns that ended on November 4th, 2008, for which at least one non-campaign funded telephone poll was in the field entirely from October 27th through November 3rd. This was done to create an apples to apples to apples comparison where, for all 65 campaigns, there are either publicly available predictions or publicly reproducible predictions (Pollster.com and Bowers don't work when there are no polls, and 538 didn't forecast House or Governor campaigns). The final predicted margin was used for all campaigns to maintain the apples to apples to apples comparison, since not every website predicted the final percentage for each candidate in every campaign. The mean and median errors were calculated for each method, and results were also sorted based on how many polls were available for each campaign. That last bit was done to try and answer the age-old question, "can polls be combined to create more accurate forecasts?"

The data for this comparison can be found here:

Prediction error rates: Bowers vs. 538 vs. Pollster.com (PDF)

Here were the results:

Median Error

# of Polls	Bowers	538.com	Pollster	# of Cases
1 or more	2.55	2.23	2.23	65
2 or more	2.26	2.17	2.09	44
3 or more	2.43	1.61	2.05	31
4 or more	1.57	1.34	1.68	24
5 or more	1.37	1.15	1.43	17
6 or more	1.26	1.12	1.50	14
7 or more	0.98	1.12	1.17	8

Using the median prediction error, all methods were very accurate. Once four or more polls are available, all methods can predict the final margin within less than 1.7%, plus or minus, most of the time. Comparatively, 538's was a bit more accurate, usually finishing in 1st and never finishing in 3rd. The differences, however, are very small.

Mean Error

# of Polls	Bowers	538.com	Pollster	# of Cases
1 or more	3.99	3.28	3.34	65
2 or more	3.03	2.72	2.77	44
3 or more	2.97	2.41	2.37	31
4 or more	2.00	1.69	1.92	24
5 or more	1.55	1.37	1.65	17
6 or more	1.44	1.21	1.69	14
7 or more	1.32	1.09	1.40	8

Overall error is noticeably higher using the mean, mainly due to occasional extreme outliers, such as a bad Research 2000 poll of the Wyoming Senate races (check the data to see just how bad). Once again, error decreases in direct correlation with an increase in the number of polls. Also, once again, when four or more polls enter the equation, error drops to plus or minus 2%, or even less. Further, once again, the 538 methodology slightly outperforms the Pollster.com methodology (although they are equal with three or fewer polls), with my method slightly further behind.

Here are what these numbers tell me:

Combining polls works: There is a minority belief that polls cannot be combined to produce more accurate results, due to different methodologies and sample sizes. This is clearly wrong. All three methods combine polls, and all three methods become more accurate every time an additional poll is introduced to the equation. So, don't ever let anyone say "combining polls doesn't work." Clearly, it does.
Four is the magic number? Looks to me like having four polls or more polls on a general election campaign dramatically increases the forecasting accuracy for that campaign. If there are four or more polls in the final week, you can use pretty much and method and hit the target.
538 wins: Looks like Nate Silver edged out both myself and Pollster.com. Pollster was equal to 538 with 3 or fewer polls, and I was equal to Pollster.com when there were four or more polls. The overall order is 538, Pollster, and then me in third. Well done Nate.
Still very close: While Nate's was the most accurate, the difference between the methods is minimal. I'm a little disappointed, but clearly anyone can come very close to both 538 and Pollster.com in terms of prediction accuracy with virtually no effort. Just add up the polls and average them. It is about 95% as good as the best methods around, and anyone can do it.

Even with this all in mind, the worst thing a forecaster can do is to sit on his or her laurels, and not look through the numbers to produce a more accurate methodology. These numbers might point the way to an even better forecasting method than these three, and I am eager to try and find it in advance of 2010 and 2012.

Games: IGN Wii: Kirby's Dream Land 3 Review

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 00:55:00 +0000

Kirby's Dream Land 3 [Virtual Console] (Wii)
The last first-party release for the SNES returns, with a second chance to find an audience.

Comics: Wondermark: Wondermark leaves The Onion; joins MCT Campus syndicate

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 00:53:32 +0000

In late 2006, the satirical newspaper The Onion launched a comics page in its print edition (currently available free on newsstands in 10 metropolitan areas). I was thrilled to feature Wondermark on that page in every market, and for about two and a half years, the comic ran in 700,000 papers every week.

Now, however, the Onion comics page is going away. The issue appearing on newsstands in a few days will be the last to feature a Wondermark strip.*

I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t disappointed — it was wonderful to attend conventions in cities like New York, San Francisco, Austin, and the D.C. area and have people recognize the strip from the paper, thrilled to discover things like book collections and the email list. It was always a kick to pick a paper off the newsstand and see my work in print, and knowing that bored people on the subway would be reading my comic helped give me perspective — and kept me from making too many internet-nerd in-jokes. The whole time, the editors at the Onion have been uniformly gracious, accommodating and supportive, and I am deeply indebted to Tasha Robinson and Joe Garden particularly.

But the financial realities of the newspaper-publishing business are what they are. (That is to say, miserable.) Moving forward, my goals are twofold — both of which heavily involve you:

> First, I want to make sure that people who enjoyed Wondermark in the Onion know that the strip itself is still very much alive and continuing online. If you have friends who regularly read the comic in the paper, remind them that they can sign up for email delivery of comics and not miss a beat. In fact, they’ll get twice the comics! (Since the Onion only published one comic a week, but I post two a week here on the site.)

>> Second, if you attend or work for a school (high school or college) with a newspaper, let them know that Wondermark is now available for syndication through MCT Campus, the same syndicate that offers comics such as “K Chronicles”, “Brewster Rockit”, and “Bliss” to schools. MCT is offering Wondermark on a trial basis, which means that it lives or dies based on newspapers electing to participate and reader feedback – both things that I can’t provide, but you can.

Yes, you (in the aggregate) have the power to make Wondermark available to millions of students and faculty (in the aggregate) who might enjoy them. With the loss of the Onion audience, this opportunity for additional exposure is very precious, and I’d love to make a good showing. Please contact an editor at your school paper and direct them (very kindly) to the MCT Campus folks here, along with a few words about why you enjoy Wondermark and why it could be a good fit for your school.

And if the paper picks it up for syndication — tell me about it! I’ll send a personalized thank-you gift to anyone who sends me a scan of Wondermark in their school paper.

Thanks so much, everyone! And to any fugitive Onion fans who’ve found your way here, thanks for making the leap online. Here’s the email subscription list, the RSS feed, the website’s Twitter feed, the LiveJournal feed — pick your flavor. It’s nice to have you around.

*If you live in Madison, San Fran., NYC, LA, Austin, Chicago, Denver/Boulder, the Twin Cities, Milwaukee, or DC, pick up an Onion late this week. You might be glad you did, hint hint

Games: IGN DS: Theresia Review

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 00:50:00 +0000

Theresia (DS)
Graphic adventuring that will have you on pins and needles.

Main: Clickolinko!: http://www.reachground.se/2008/03/31/you-have-to-burn-the-rope/